Southend sixth former Lexie Bell must be feeling assured about her college place in September. When she was making use of her lecturers predicted she would obtain an A* and two A grades, and she or he has labored laborious to fulfill the phrases of her supply to review English literature.

As an alternative, she is “anxious and on edge” and her father, Michael, is fundraising by way of the Crowdjustice web site to lift the charges for a authorized motion in opposition to Ofqual, the examination regulator in England. With exams cancelled due to Covid-19, he fears the proposed system to grade A-levels and GCSEs will imply downgrading high- attaining college students attending much less well-performing faculties.

Academics in England have submitted the grades they choose their college students would have achieved in exams (centre evaluation grades) and now Ofqual and the examination boards will put them by way of a statistical mangle, which Ofqual says is more likely to embody a comparability with the grades achieved in every topic by the college’s A-level candidates over the earlier three years. If the boards suspect lecturers are being over-optimistic, they may decrease college students’ marks.

Academics have been instructed to place their candidates in rank order inside the grades, which suggests these close to the boundaries may drop to a decrease grade if Ofqual raises the variety of marks wanted for every grade to keep away from grade inflation in contrast with the earlier 12 months.

At Lexie’s faculty, Shoeburyness Excessive College in Southend-on-Sea, no candidate has achieved above a C-grade within the final three years in her A-level topics – English literature, psychology and spiritual training – so her father fears she may find yourself with Bs and even Cs to carry her consistent with the college’s earlier efficiency. He’s hoping to launch a judicial assessment of Ofqual’s statistical standardisation strategies earlier than the outcomes are decided and introduced in mid-August.

Ofqual has mentioned that it’ll take the prior efficiency of a 12 months group under consideration however not that of the person pupil. So the truth that Lexie achieved high grade 9s in her three A-level topics at GCSE is not going to assist her. If the regulator’s system takes the GCSE outcomes of the entire of her 12 months group under consideration, she could possibly be additional deprived if she belongs to a below-average cohort.

Her father says: “Ofqual has not but instructed us precisely how grades might be decided, however on the idea of what it has mentioned to this point, it appears the method might be inherently unfair as a result of it ties in a pupil’s outcomes to these of his or her predecessors. Her lecturers anticipate her to do very effectively at A-level. She is vulnerable to being marked down by way of no fault of her personal and I’m not ready to take that mendacity down.”

He provides: “What sticks within the craw is that there isn’t a enchantment in opposition to the awarded grade. That to me feels basically flawed and in opposition to pure justice. The one manner I can see to seek out out precisely what’s deliberate and get justice for our youngsters is thru the authorized system.”

He says many college students like his daughter face having their grades unfairly adjusted downwards, and their solely recourse might be to sit down exams within the autumn. “This might have a big affect on each their future prospects and their psychological well being,” he says.

Lexie, 18, hopes her first-choice college, Sussex, might be versatile. However even when her place is safe, she fears she could have decrease grades than she deserves on her CV for all times. “It’s very odd in the meanwhile. I really feel as if I’ve labored all these years for my exams and it has ended up being anti-climactic. The worst half is that I do know I’ve no management. I actually do not know the way it will find yourself,” she says.

Satirically, Lexie is on this place due to a selection she made on the age of 11. “She handed the 11-plus to go to Southend Excessive College for Women, a grammar faculty, however selected to go to Shoeburyness,” says Bell. “If she was on the grammar faculty now her grades can be safer as a result of they’re consistent with what its college students obtain.”

At one other faculty, William Taylor, (not his actual title), 18, is having hassle sleeping due to his fears that the system will mark down the three A* grades his lecturers had predicted for college entry, simply because his faculty has no monitor report of high grades.

With competitors for a spot at medical faculty fierce, he fears he’ll lose out and have to attend one other 12 months when he might be up in opposition to a brand new set of candidates.

“Ofqual has been evasive about not disclosing how dominant the standardisation might be in comparison with the teacher-assessed grades. I’ve been anxious as a result of my faculty is an Ofsted excellent faculty however by way of A-level attainment during the last three years it has been common, and there have been no A* grades in my topic, chemistry,” he says.

Amara Ahmad, an training lawyer, says it may be argued that brilliant college students at a faculty or school that traditionally has achieved much less effectively could possibly be prejudiced by the proposed standardisation system.

“The place of the federal government and Ofqual is that there’s a proper of enchantment, however it is rather restricted and only for the examination centre if it believes there was a technical error,” says Ahmad, a senior affiliate with Doyle Clayton solicitors.

College students themselves do not need the best to enchantment and Ofqual has mentioned that candidates can select to sit down their exams and procure a “actual” grade in the autumn. “Nevertheless, universities begin the third week in September and there’s no timetable but for the autumn examination collection so it may price an adolescent one entire educational 12 months,” she says.

Her different concern is the danger of bias in opposition to youngsters from black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) backgrounds. “Revealed research from the UK and overseas have regarded on the drawbacks of instructor evaluation, significantly for minority teams,” she says.

Dennis Sherwood, an impartial evaluation advisor who has labored with Ofqual, factors out that if the centre-assessed grades are out of line with earlier years, the boards might want to decrease the general outcomes or face claims of grade inflation. Then if college students fail to get their anticipated grades, they may blame lecturers.

“Academics have been positioned proper within the centre of the firing line by extensively used however faulty statements equivalent to ‘this 12 months, college students’ grades might be based mostly on instructor assessments’,” he says. “The reality is that the grades awarded to college students in August is not going to be these submitted by lecturers, however these ensuing from statistical standardisation by examination boards.”

He provides: “It might be that Lexie and William are involved unnecessarily and that Ofqual will discover a option to take “outlier” gifted college students under consideration. We simply don’t know, and that’s the drawback. Ofqual has not said the small print of the foundations that might be utilized, even after lecturers have submitted their assessments. That creates a lot anxiousness, particularly for brilliant candidates trapped of their faculty’s comparatively weak previous and likewise for small teams entered for a topic.”

Ofqual says statistical standardisation is not going to change the rank order of scholars inside every faculty or school, nor will it assume that the distribution of grades in every topic and college or school must be the identical. If some grading judgments seem like extra extreme or beneficiant than others, examination boards will modify the grades of some or all of these college students upwards or downwards accordingly.

The board says: “We’re nonetheless exploring the finer element of the standardisation mannequin and are rigorously evaluating the relative affect on centres of various sizes and with totally different traits and, the place attainable, technical selections might be made to make sure college students are usually not systematically advantaged or deprived.”